2024 U.S. Open picks, odds, field: Surprising predictions by PGA golf model that's won 12 majors (2024)

Scottie Scheffler has never won a major outside of Augusta National, but he heads to the 2024 U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 as one of the shortest betting favorites in over a decade. Scheffler won the Memorial Tournament last week, marking his fifth win of the season. He is the 11-4 favorite in the 2024 U.S. Open odds and has not finished outside the top 20 since last August. Should you back Scheffler at short odds with your 2024 U.S. Open prediction? Scheffler will have to fend off other 2024 U.S. Open contenders like Rory McIlroy (10-1), Xander Schauffele (10-1) and Bryson DeChambeau (10-1).

Pinehurst No. 2 has not hosted the top PGA pros since 2014, so which course factors matter the most when you comb through the 2024 U.S. Open field ahead of Thursday's 2024 U.S. Open tee times starting at 6:45 a.m. ET? Before locking in any 2024 U.S. Open picks of your own, entering PGA DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, or finalizing U.S. Open props and U.S. Open Pick 6 or PrizePicks entries, be sure to see the 2024 U.S. Open golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Our proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up almost $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure's model correctly predicted Scheffler would finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2024 Masters, the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and The Players Championship this season. McClure also included Hideki Matsuyama in his best bets to win the 2024 Genesis Invitational. That bet hit at +9000, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned nearly $1,000.

The model also predicted Rahm would be victorious at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. At the 2023 Masters, the model was all over Rahm's second career major victory heading into the weekend. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the third round, but the model still projected him as the winner. It was the second straight Masters win for the model, which also nailed Scheffler winning in 2022.

This same model has also nailed a whopping 12 majors entering the weekend, including the last three Masters and 2024 PGA Championship. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now with the U.S. Open 2024 approaching, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2024 U.S. Open predictions

One major surprise the model is calling for at the 2024 U.S. Open: Xander Schauffele, one of the top favorites and the most recent major winner at the PGA Championship, stumbles and barely cracks the top five. Schauffele finally picked up his first major win in 28 tries when he held off Bryson DeChambeau and Viktor Hovland at Valhalla in May.

That has vaulted him up in the PGA odds as he's now the co-second favorite in the U.S. Open 2024 odds. However, his overall track record doesn't justify that kind of status as he has just three top-five finishes in majors since 2019. He also was shaky at The Memorial over the weekend, shooting two rounds of 73 or higher to fall out of contention. The model has found better values to utilize in 2024 U.S. Open bets.See who else to fade here.

Another surprise: Brooks Koepka, a 20-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win than his long odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Koepka went on one of the most memorable winning streaks in the history of major championships several years ago, winning four majors in just two years.

He opened that stretch with a win in the 2017 U.S. Open, and he added another U.S. Open victory to his resume when he defended his title in 2018. Koepka added a runner-up finish in 2019 and a T4 in 2021 before finishing T17 last year. He has not cracked the top 15 at a major in his last four tries, but he is primed to make a run at another major title this weekend, especially since he finished T4 when Pinehurst No. 2 hosted the 2014 U.S. Open.See who else to back here.

How to make 2024 U.S. Open picks

The model is also targeting two other golfers with odds of 20-1 or longer to make a strong run at the title. It's also targeting two triple-digit longshots in its best bets. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's picks here.

Who will win the 2024 U.S. Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the U.S. Open 2024 odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected U.S. Open leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 12 golf majors, including the last three Masters and the 2024 PGA Championship.

2024 U.S. Open odds, field

Get full 2024 U.S. Open picks, best bets, and predictions here

Scottie Scheffler 11-4
Rory McIlroy 10-1
Xander Schauffele 10-1
Bryson DeChambeau 10-1
Viktor Hovland 12-1
Ludvig Aberg 14-1
Collin Morikawa 14-1
Brooks Koepka 20-1
Patrick Cantlay 28-1
Cameron Smith 28-1
Max Homa 28-1
Wyndham Clark 33-1
Justin Thomas 35-1
Hideki Matsuyama 35-1
Cameron Young 40-1
Dustin Johnson 40-1
Jordan Spieth 40-1
Matt Fitzpatrick 40-1
Sahith Theegala 45-1
Tom Kim 45-1
Tony Finau 45-1
Tommy Fleetwood 45-1
Jason Day 45-1
Sungjae Im 50-1
Min Woo Lee 50-1
Tyrrell Hatton 50-1
Si Woo Kim 55-1
Will Zalatoris 55-1
Shane Lowry 60-1
Corey Conners 60-1
Sam Burns 60-1
Dean Burmester 60-1
Keegan Bradley 60-1
Byeong-Hun An 70-1
Brian Harman 75-1
Patrick Reed 80-1
Sepp Straka 90-1
Stephan Jaeger 90-1
David Puig 90-1
Russell Henley 90-1
Adrian Meronk 90-1
Jake Knapp 100-1
Justin Rose 100-1
Billy Horschel 100-1
Chris Kirk 100-1
Aaron Rai 100-1
Nicolai Hojgaard 100-1
Thomas Detry 125-1
Eric Cole 125-1
Phil Mickelson 125-1
Rickie Fowler 125-1
Tom McKibbin 125-1
Akshay Bhatia 125-1
Tiger Woods 125-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 125-1
Austin Eckroat 150-1
Victor Perez 150-1
Taylor Pendrith 150-1
Daniel Berger 150-1
Denny McCarthy 150-1
Cameron Davis 150-1
Emiliano Grillo 175-1
Taylor Moore 175-1
Ryan Fox 175-1
Tom Hoge 175-1
Harris English 175-1
Eugenio Chacarra 175-1
Adam Schenk 175-1
Adam Hadwin 175-1
Erik Van Rooyen 200-1
Nick Taylor 200-1
Kurt Kitayama 200-1
Rikuya Hoshino 200-1
J.T. Poston 200-1
Mackenzie Hughes 200-1
Beau Hossler 200-1
Lucas Glover 200-1
Seamus Power 225-1
Grant Forrest 225-1
Adam Svensson 225-1
Davis Thompson 225-1
Harry Higgs 250-1
Gary Woodland 250-1
Mark Hubbard 250-1
Matthieu Pavon 250-1
Richard Mansell 250-1
Webb Simpson 250-1
Greyson Sigg 250-1
Ben Kohles 300-1
Brendon Todd 300-1
Tim Widing 300-1
Sam Bairstow 300-1
Peter Malnati 300-1
Sam Bennett 300-1
Matteo Manassero 300-1
Gordon Sargent 300-1
Jason Scrivener 300-1
Justin Lower 350-1
Casey Jarvis 350-1
Chesson Hadley 350-1
Nicolas Echavarria 350-1
Nick Dunlap 350-1
Zac Blair 350-1
Frankie Capan III 400-1
Max Greyserman 400-1
Matt Kuchar 400-1
S.H. Kim 400-1
Robert Rock 400-1
Chris Petefish 400-1
Rico Hoey 400-1
Wells Williams 500-1
Sung Kang 500-1
Charles Reiter 500-1
Federik Kjettrup 500-1
Ashton McCulloch 500-1
Ryo Ishikawa 500-1
Isaiah Salinda 500-1
Mcclure Meissner 500-1
Brandon Wu 500-1
Jackson Buchanan 500-1
Michael McGowan 500-1
Jim Herman 500-1
Brian Campbell 500-1
Logan McAllister 500-1
Carson Schaake 500-1
John Chin 500-1
Benjamin James 500-1
Omar Morales 500-1
Luke Clanton 500-1
Neal Shipley 500-1
Gunnar Broin 500-1
Stewart Hagestad 500-1
Carter Jenkins 500-1
Francisco Molinari 500-1
Brandon Robinson Thompson 500-1
Taisei Shimizu 500-1
Chris Naegel 500-1
Willie Mack III 500-1
Hiroshi Tai 500-1
Parker Bell 500-1
Takumi Kanaya 500-1
Colin Prater 500-1
Andrew Svoboda 500-1
Bryan Kim 500-1
Santiago De La Fuente 500-1
Riki Kawamoto 500-1
Joey Vrzich 500-1
Edoardo Molinari 500-1
Martin Kaymer 750-1

2024 U.S. Open picks, odds, field: Surprising predictions by PGA golf model that's won 12 majors (2024)


2024 U.S. Open picks, odds, field: Surprising predictions by PGA golf model that's won 12 majors? ›

DeChambeau leads a major after three rounds for the first time in his career and will aim for his second U.S. Open title. He is the -110 favorite (risk $110 to win $100) in the 2024 U.S. Open odds, followed by Rory McIlroy (+330) and Patrick Cantlay (+700).

Who is predicted to win the U.S. Open in 2024? ›

2024 U.S. Open expert picks, predictions. Winner: Scottie Scheffler (3-1): Who else? If each win to this point has made his season more historic, this one will make it the most historic. First golfer since Tiger Woods to win six times in a year, including a major.

Who has the best odds to win the U.S. Open? ›

U.S. Open Live Odds Before Round 4
  • Bryson DeChambeau -110.
  • Rory McIlroy +320.
  • Patrick Cantlay +750.
  • Ludvig Aberg +1600.
  • Hideki Matsuyama +1800.
  • Matthieu Pavon +1800.
  • Collin Morikawa +5000.
  • Tyrrell Hatton +5500.
21 hours ago

How many golfers in the U.S. Open in 2024? ›

The 2024 U.S. Open began with 156 golfers competing for a major championship and a massive first-place prize in Pinehurst, North Carolina. But less than half of that starting field remains entering the weekend. Dozens of cuts were made following Friday's second round at Pinehurst Resort & Country Club's Course No. 2.

What are the odds for Phil Mickelson to win the U.S. Open? ›

You can't talk about Tiger without bringing up Phil Mickelson, who's had his fair share of struggles in the U.S. Open. The lefty has +35000 odds to win the event.

Who is predicted to win the U.S. Open? ›

DeChambeau leads a major after three rounds for the first time in his career and will aim for his second U.S. Open title. He is the -110 favorite (risk $110 to win $100) in the 2024 U.S. Open odds, followed by Rory McIlroy (+330) and Patrick Cantlay (+700).

Where will the 2026 U.S. Open be? ›

2026 U.S. Open Course

In 2026, the U.S. Open will head back to New York, taking place at Shinneco*ck Hills Golf Club. Shinneco*ck has hosted the U.S. Open five times, including the second-ever U.S. Open in 1896. But after that appearance, the tournament didn't return until 1986.

Who is the favorite to win the open? ›

2024 U.S. Open odds

According to the latest BetMGM golf odds, Scheffler is the heavy favorite ahead of Schauffele, with Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa close behind.

Why is it so hard to win the US Open? ›

The U.S. Open is staged at a variety of courses, set up in such a way that scoring is very difficult, with a premium placed on accurate driving.

What do you win if you win the US Open golf? ›

While every player will bring home a nice chunk of change, the winner of the 124th U.S. Open will earn a major championship-record $4.3 million first-place prize.

Who missed the cut at the 2024 U.S. Open? ›

2024 U.S. Open missed cuts: Tiger Woods, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland among stars out at Pinehurst No. 2.

What is the purse for U.S. Open in 2024? ›

The U.S. Open is offering a record-breaking $21.5 million purse, with $4.3 million to the winner.

What is the cut line at the U.S. Open 2024? ›

Dozens of golfers still haven't finished the front nine of Round 2, making the cut line still dynamic as of 4:30 p.m. ET. At time of publishing, the projected cut line is 5-over compared to the 2-over mark following the first round.

Who is favored in the U.S. Open 2024? ›

2024 U.S. Open odds
  • Bryson DeChambeau (-120)
  • Rory McIlroy (+333)
  • Patrick Cantlay (+700)
  • Ludvig Åberg (+1600)
  • Matthieu Pavon (+1600)
  • Hideki Matsuyama (+2000)
  • Tony Finau (+5000)
  • Tyrell Hatton (+5000)
21 hours ago

Who are the Favourites to win the U.S. PGA? ›

Should you back Scheffler at short odds with your 2024 U.S. Open prediction? Scheffler will have to fend off other 2024 U.S. Open contenders like Rory McIlroy (10-1), Xander Schauffele (10-1) and Bryson DeChambeau (10-1).

What are the odds of Tiger Woods winning the U.S. Open? ›

Tiger Woods odds

According to BetMGM on Thursday, Woods is at +25000 odds to win his fourth U.S. Open and first since 2008.

Where will the U.S. Open in 2024? ›

The 2024 U.S. Open will be the 13th USGA championship to be hosted by Pinehurst and the 12th Pinehurst USGA event in the last 35 years, which is more than any other site in the United States.

Who are the favorites to win the PGA Open? ›

The 2024 U.S. Open field includes players like Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele. Scheffler is the 11-4 favorite in the 2024 U.S. Open odds, replicating memorable runs Woods went in the 2000s. In fact, the world's No. 1-ranked golfer has won or finished second in seven of his last eight tournaments.

Where is the open in 2024? ›

In 2024, The 152nd Open will be played July 14 – 21, 2024 in Scotland where Royal Troon Golf Club will host The Open, sometimes referred to as The British Open or The Open Championship.

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