By Jennifer Eakins, 4for4
Special to Yahoo Sports
New year, the same anti-kicker sentiment rearing its head on social media. Many leagues around the globe still utilize kickers in seasonal formats and as per usual, I’m here to assist with draft prep so you can maximize your points from week to week — because every single point matters when it comes to fantasy football.
By looking at various predictive categories for NFL offenses, we can get an idea of which kickers will be successful ahead of the 2024 season. I am someone who streams my kicker weekly, so really only look to Week 1 when selecting my leg on draft day, but if you are looking for one guy to roll with for most of the season, I have you covered here, as well.
The Fantasy Kicking Elite
Finding clubs with high team point totals and those that are favored (preferably at home) are ways to predict a kicker’s potential outcome from week to week. I looked at every team’s weekly projections for the season to determine this top tier of legs.
The 49ers are favored by five or more points in 8-of-17 games this season and boast a team total of 25 points or higher in 13 of those contests, leading the NFL in both categories. San Fran is picked to win every single game in 2024, creating plenty of opportunity for Jake Moody to do his thing for fantasy rosters.
Harrison Butker may be causing some big waves off the field, but he should be consistent this season in output. The Chiefs' current projections include just one loss (Week 7 @ SF), and they are favored by more than five points in seven of those games, with five of them taking place at Arrowhead Stadium.
Justin Tucker is perennially the first kicker off draft boards outside of homer picks, and doesn't really need a hype blurb, but here it is anyway. The Ravens feature five games where they are projected to win by five or more points with three tilts featuring a spread of more than a touchdown. There are six contests where Baltimore’s team total exceeds 25 points, presenting plenty of kicking opportunities for Tucker in 2024.
Cincinnati goes into this season with three of their first four games boasting spreads of over 5.5 points and then tack on another two more contests where they are favored by a touchdown or more. The Bengals are projected to score 25.5 points or more in seven games in 2024 which also adds to Evan McPherson’s fantasy value along with his massive leg, of course.
There are three teams with spreads projected over five points in four contests this season. Despite being in the lower portion of this tier in terms of spreads, the Lions boast a team total of over 25 points in 12 games this season, which is second only to the 49ers. Last year, Dan Campbell was more aggressive than most on fourth down, diminishing the kicker role, but they also didn't have faith in the position. Right now, it’s a toss-up between Mike Badgley and Jake Bates, and if one of them can earn some trust, the Detroit kicker role could be a meaty one for fantasy purposes.
The Cowboys are only projected to lose three times this season, once in Week 1 on the road in Cleveland in a pick 'em contest, Week 8 in San Francisco, and then again in Week 17 in Lincoln Financial Field against the Eagles. Brandon Aubrey is coming off an excellent K1 campaign as a rookie and is set up again in 2024.
Jason Sanders and the Dolphins feature a highly frontloaded schedule, with their four games boasting spreads over five points coming before Week 13, and nine projected wins in that time frame. Miami is schemed as a high-scoring offense, with seven team totals eclipsing 25 points. Sanders was the K3 in 2023 and should be near the top again this year.
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Solid, Dependable Choices
This next tier is full of kickers who may not be on the highest-performing offenses in the NFL but still manage to put up quality numbers throughout the season. These are solid weekly starts if you do not want to stream the position, but don’t want to waste anything but a last-round pick on a kicker.
Jake Elliott has been inconsistent as a fantasy asset in the past partly due to the success of the Tush Push extending drives, therefore limiting field goal attempts. He managed a K4 output last season and now is armed with a contract extension and a Jason Kelce-less o-line which could lead to more leg time.
Ka’imi Fairbairn has been through all the phases with Houston over the past seven seasons and disappeared from the fantasy radar for a few of those, but with C.J. Stroud now under center and a high-powered offense in tow, he’s back. Only three kickers scored more fantasy points on a per-game basis than Fairbairn last year but he missed five contests due to injury. Better health and 11 projected wins for the Texans bode well for the 30-year-old’s success in 2024.
The Falcons' offensive struggles have killed the fantasy value for Younghoe Koo recently despite him averaging an 86.5% make rate on field goals each year since 2019. This offense has some stability at QB for the first time since Matt Ryan was in the building, they have a new coaching staff, plus they play in arguably the weakest division with 12 domes games on tap.
It was a K3 finish in fantasy points per game in 2023 for Greg Zuerlein, but he was K16 overall due to a lack of extra points. With Aaron Rodgers presumably playing for more than one drive and a beefed-up offensive line in New York, the Jets are currently favored to win 14-of-17 contests, forecasting nicely for Greg the Leg in 2024.
The Chargers are an enigma heading into this season, but Cameron Dicker’s accuracy is not. He’s hit 52-of-55 field-goal attempts, all 59 extra points, and has not missed inside of 50 yards in one and a half years as the kicker for LA. A new coaching staff and a revamped offense may bring a step forward in scoring but if not, at least his field goal prowess is exceptional.
Week 1 Streamers
As I mentioned above, I prefer to stream my kickers from week to week, so I usually draft based on Week 1 matchups, and always in the final round. Since the odds for the first week of the 2024 season are already out, I figured I’d share my top picks for those who choose the same approach.
You won't find the elite names here since they’ll be drafted, and most likely, too early at that.
Tyler Bass (Bills) vs. Arizona
Coming off a disastrous end of 2023 with three missed field goals in two playoff games, Tyler Bass starts out the season with a bang, boasting a home tilt against Arizona. Buffalo is favored by a touchdown with a hearty team total of 27.5.
Cairo Santos (Bears) vs. Titans
One of the most polarizing offensive makeovers this offseason, the Chicago Bears, begin at home as 4.5-point favorites over the Titans. They are projected to score 24 points in the win.
Jake Elliott (Eagles) vs. Packers
Elliott may get drafted on the early side in your league but if not, he makes for a nice Week 1 streaming candidate. The Eagles are 1.5-point favorites over Green Bay at home with a team total of 25, and a current over/under set at 48.5, the third highest in the state.
Ka’imi Fairbairn (Texans) @ Colts
The Texans open on the road in Indy as 1.5-point favorites, with a team total currently set at 24.75. Houston is favored in their next five contests, so grab Fairbairn and hang on if you don’t want to stream from Weeks 1-6.
Honorable Mention: Blake Grupe (Saints) vs. Panthers - Saints are favored by five at home.
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This article was originally published on 4for4.com
A proud alumna of the UGA Grady College of Journalism, Jennifer Eakins has been working in the sports industry for well over a decade. She has had stints with CNN Sports, the Atlanta Hawks and the Colorado Rockies. Her first fantasy football draft took place in 1996 where she selected Ricky Watters with the first overall pick, and she has been a fantasy degenerate ever since.
