March Madness 2024 bracket: NCAA Tournament picks, optimal predictions from top-rated college basketball model (2024)

The 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket has officially arrived and the madness already began during the First Four. There's already been an overtime game, resulting in Grambling advancing to face No. 1 Purdue on Friday. In addition, Virginia's offense went scoreless over the final 9:30 of the first half in a 67-42 victory for Colorado State. Since the introduction of the First Four round in 2011, every NCAA Tournament outside of 2019 had at least one First Four team win a game in the Round of 64. How should that affect how you build your 2024 March Madness bracket?

Purdue is hoping history doesn't repeat itself when the Boilermakers lost to Fairleigh Dickinson after the Knights won their 1 vs. 16 game last season. Purdue finds itself in a similar situation, but only two No. 1 seeds have lost to a No. 16 seed in NCAA Tournament history, so you could feel confident that Purdue won't fall victim to another opening loss. Purdue is now a No. 4 seed or better for the seventh straight season, but has only made it past the Sweet 16 once. Should you have Purdue in the Final Four of your 2024 NCAA bracket? Before filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket 2024, be sure to see the 2024 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine's projection model has simulated every game in the tournament 10,000 times. It has absolutely crushed its March Madness picks recently, beating over 92% of all CBS Sports brackets in three of the past five tournaments. In an upset-laden 2023 NCAA Tournament, the model was all over UConn's shocking Final Four run as a 4-seed. It went an amazing 23-9 in the first round, including an astounding 12-4 in the Midwest and West regions.

It knows how to spot an upset as well. The same model has produced brackets that have nailed 20 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016.

There's no reason to rely on luck when there's proven technology to help you dominate your 2024 March Madness picks. Now, with the 2024 NCAA bracket revealed, the model is simulating the matchups and its results are in. You can only see it over at SportsLine.

Top 2024 March Madness bracket picks

One of the Midwest Region picks from the model: No. 3 seed Creighton goes on a surprise run to the Final Four. Creighton has proven capable of knocking off any team in the country, as displayed with a 19-point victory over UConn, the overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Creighton has three players averaging more than 17 points per game, giving the Bluejays the offensive versatility that if one player has an off-scoring night, it doesn't immediately signal the end of their run. Baylor Scheierman, a 6-foot-7 guard, leads the team in scoring (18.4 ppg), rebounds (9.0), and blocks (3.0) while shooting 37.2% on 3-pointers while making 99 triples. He's tied for the 23rd-most made 3-pointers in college basketball, doing so against some of the top competition in the country.

Creighton is third in the country in effective field goal percentage (57.5%) and fourth in shooting efficiency. The Bluejays average 80.5 points per game, the 23rd-most in the nation, with the 17th-best average scoring margin in college basketball. Creighton is one of the few teams in the country to match an efficient offense with an efficient defense, pairing the fourth-best opponent shooting efficiency with the 13th-best opponent effective field goal percentage in the nation. The Bluejays have all you'd want in a Final Four team for your 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket.

Another surprise: No. 5 Gonzaga gets past No. 4 Kansas in the second round of the Midwest. Kansas is the only school with two Wooden Award finalists, but one of those, Kevin McCullar Jr., has been ruled out for the entire 2024 NCAA Tournament due to a knee injury. Kansas played six games without McCullar this season and averaged 10 fewer points than the 26 games they played with him.

Gonzaga has few questions offensively. The Zags have the 17th-lowest turnover rate in the nation, and those extra possessions on offense allow Graham Ike to dominate in the paint. The Wyoming transfer has effectively replaced Drew Timme and is scoring 16.5 points per game on over 60% shooting. Meanwhile, Creighton transfer Ryan Nembhard had a 30-point game in last year's tournament and enters this year's with three straight double-digit assist games.You can see the model's 2024 NCAA bracket picks here.

How to make 2024 NCAA bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup, and which teams will make surprising runs through the 2024 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want tosee which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2024 NCAA bracket picks.

So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2024 bracket, and which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region the 1- and 3-seeds go down in flames before the Elite Eight, and which region features a 4-seed in the Final Four, all from the model that has beaten 92% of bracket players three of the last five tournaments.

March Madness 2024 bracket: NCAA Tournament picks, optimal predictions from top-rated college basketball model (2024)

FAQs

Who is most likely to win the March Madness in 2024? ›

2024 March Madness odds: UConn favored over Purdue in men's title game. And then there were two. Now that we are down to the last two teams, the defending champion UConn Huskies remain the favorites to win the men's college basketball national title.

Who is the most accurate predictor for March Madness? ›

Heat Check CBB's Lukas Harkins is one of the most accurate bracketologists in all of college basketball media. Harkins has seven total years of experience in March Madness projections, consistently providing updated bracket predictions, team analysis, and “bubble watch” deep dives.

Who is the top seed in NCAA Basketball 2024? ›

The men's field is topped by defending champion Connecticut while the women's overall No. 1 seed is undefeated South Carolina. The other top seeds for the NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament are the Purdue Boilermakers, North Carolina Tar Heels and Houston Cougars.

Who are the upset picks for March Madness 2024? ›

New Mexico, Oregon and James Madison are the most popular upset picks for the 2024 March Madness men's tournament | NCAA.com.

Is UConn better than Houston basketball? ›

1 in final AP Top 25 ahead of NCAA Tournament.

Who is most likely to win men's March Madness? ›

March Madness Power Rankings: Final Four
  • T-3) North Carolina State Wolfpack (+1600) In the never-ending fight against fate, destiny always wins. ...
  • 2) Purdue Boilermakers (+205) Basketball may very well be the most superstar-driven sport in the world. ...
  • 1) UConn Huskies (-195)
Apr 2, 2024

Who is the best college basketball analyst? ›

Jay Bilas is ESPN's top college basketball analyst and is widely recognized for his thorough knowledge of the game and his professional, clever style.

What is the best bracketology website? ›

Delphi Bracketology has been ranked consistently in the top of the BracketMatrix rankings of all bracketologists in the country.

What are the odds of predicting a perfect NCAA bracket? ›

Astronomically small. The odds for a perfect bracket are one in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808, which is 2 to the 63rd power. That number is purely mathematical, though.

Who are the number one seeds in March Madness 2024? ›

Seeds
SeedSchoolConference
1UConnBig East
2Iowa StateBig 12
3IllinoisBig Ten
4AuburnSEC
12 more rows

Who will be #1 seeds in NCAA basketball? ›

Purdue (Midwest), UConn (East), Houston (South) and North Carolina (West) remain the No. 1 seeds in DeCourcy's latest bracket forecast. The Huskies defeated Marquette in Saturday's Big East Tournament championship game.

Who's favored to win NCAA? ›

UConn is the favorite to win the 2025 national championship at ESPN BET and Caesars Sportsbook, opening with +900 and 10-1 odds, respectively.

Who is the favorite to win March Madness 2024? ›

The men's March Madness bracket is set and the No. 1 overall seed and defending national champion UConn Huskies (+400) stand atop the field as the favorites to cut down the nets in April.

Which number one seed is most likely to lose? ›

Ranking the No. 1 Seeds in Order of Likelihood to Be the First to Lose
  • North Carolina.
  • Houston.
  • Purdue.
  • UConn.
Mar 20, 2024

Which upsets should I pick in March Madness? ›

Here's how to pick March Madness men's upsets, according to the data
FIRST ROUND UPSETFREQUENCYPCT
No. 11 seed over No. 6 seed5838.16%
No. 12 seed over No. 5 seed5334.87%
No. 13 seed over No. 4 seed3221.05%
No. 14 seed over No. 3 seed2214.47%
2 more rows
Mar 19, 2024

Who is predicted to win March Madness 2024 women's? ›

The title game is set for the women's NCAA March Madness tournament. The South Carolina Gameco*cks will put their undefeated record on the line against Caitlin Clark and the Iowa Hawkeyes — and per usual, South Carolina is favored.

Who's favored to win the final four? ›

Odds to win national title
TeamOdds
UConn-195
Purdue+200
NC State+1600
Alabama+2000
Mar 31, 2024

Where is the men's final four for 2024? ›

How many teams are in March Madness 2024? ›

Tournament procedure

A total of 68 teams entered the 2024 tournament. A total of 32 automatic bids are awarded to each program that won a conference tournament. The remaining 36 bids are issued "at-large", with selections extended by the NCAA Selection Committee.

Top Articles
Latest Posts
Article information

Author: Patricia Veum II

Last Updated:

Views: 6403

Rating: 4.3 / 5 (44 voted)

Reviews: 91% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Patricia Veum II

Birthday: 1994-12-16

Address: 2064 Little Summit, Goldieton, MS 97651-0862

Phone: +6873952696715

Job: Principal Officer

Hobby: Rafting, Cabaret, Candle making, Jigsaw puzzles, Inline skating, Magic, Graffiti

Introduction: My name is Patricia Veum II, I am a vast, combative, smiling, famous, inexpensive, zealous, sparkling person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.